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Updated: May 24, 2026
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Published on: February 13, 2018
Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines
Stephen Rose1, Paulina Jaramillo, Mitchell J Small
1Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Summary
Offshore wind farms face significant hurricane risks, potentially destroying nearly half of turbines in vulnerable U.S. coastal areas. Mitigation strategies can enhance the reliability of wind energy to meet electricity demands.
Area of Science:
- Renewable Energy Engineering
- Coastal Engineering
- Meteorology
Background:
- The U.S. aims for 20% electricity from wind, requiring over 50 GW from offshore turbines.
- Hurricanes pose a significant risk to offshore wind turbines, with tower buckling observed in typhoons.
- No offshore wind turbines are currently built in the United States, necessitating risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a probabilistic model for estimating hurricane-induced destruction of offshore wind turbines.
- To assess the risk of turbine destruction in U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters.
Main Methods:
- Probabilistic modeling to simulate hurricane impacts on offshore wind farms.
- Application of the model to four representative U.S. coastal locations.
Main Results:
- In high-risk areas, nearly 50% of turbines in a farm could be destroyed within a 20-year period.
- Vulnerability varies significantly by location along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
Conclusions:
- Offshore wind farms in the U.S. face substantial hurricane risks, particularly in actively considered development zones.
- Mitigation measures like increased design wind loads, improved nacelle maneuverability, and strategic site selection can significantly reduce risks.
- Implementing these measures is crucial for the successful deployment of offshore wind energy to meet national electricity needs.
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