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Updated: May 24, 2026

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Stability and transitions of depressive subtypes over a 2-year follow-up
F Lamers1, D Rhebergen, K R Merikangas
1Genetic Epidemiology Research Branch, Intramural Research Program, National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892-3720, USA. lamersf@mail.nih.gov
Background:
Identifying depressive subtypes is an important tool in reducing the heterogeneity of major depressive disorder. However, few studies have examined the stability of putative subtypes of depression over time.
Method:
The sample included 488 persons from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) who had major depressive disorder at baseline and at the 2-year follow-up assessment. A latent transition analysis (LTA) was applied to examine the stability of depressive subtypes across time-points. Differences in demographic, clinical, psychosocial and health correlates between subtypes were evaluated in a subsample of persons with stable subtypes.
Results:
Three subtypes were identified at each time-point: a moderate subtype (prevalence T0 39%, T1 42%), a severe typical subtype (T0 30%, T1 25%), and a severe atypical subtype (T0 31%, T1 34%). The LTA showed 76% stability across the 2-year follow-up, with the greatest stability in the severe atypical class (79%). Analyses of correlates in the stable subtypes showed a predominance of women and more overweight and obesity in the severe atypical subtype, and a greater number of negative life events and higher neuroticism and functioning scores in the severe typical subtype.
Conclusions:
Subtypes of major depressive disorder were found to be stable across a 2-year follow-up and to have distinct determinants, supporting the notion that the identified subtypes are clinically meaningful.
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