Natural course of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in southern China: a prospective cohort study

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease, the natural course of which has not been well documented. This study aimed to perform a prospective cohort study to investigate NAFLD in a Chinese population.

Using our previous epidemiological survey, 3543 patients were followed-up for a median of 4 years (range 3.6-4.8 years). Of these patients, 624 participated in a new survey. Interviews, physical examinations, biochemical tests and abdominal ultrasonography were repeated for these patient.

The annual incidence of NAFLD was 9.1% (male 7.3% vs female 9.7%, P=0.047). Among 117 NAFLD patients at baseline, 51 (43.6%) remained unchanged, 26 (22.2%) became worse, and 40 (34.2%) improved. Patients with simultaneous metabolic syndrome (MS) showed accelerated progression (P=0.026). For the NAFLD patients, both general annual mortality rates and cardiovascular disease deaths (both 0.54%) were significantly higher than those of patients without NAFLD (0.19% and 0.17%, P=0.005). Age and several variables related to MS were risk factors for NAFLD progression.

The incidence of NAFLD in southern China is relatively lower in comparison with that of the developed countries. Patients with NAFLD have a benign prognosis. Variables related to MS are risk factors for NAFLD occurrence and progression.