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Epidemic protection zones: centred on cases or based on connectivity?
A L Rivas1, F O Fasina, J M Hammond
1Center for Global Health, Health Sciences Center, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA. alrivas@unm.edu
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
|February 25, 2012
Summary
Traditional circular protection zones for infectious diseases are less effective than network-based approaches. Considering connectivity, like road networks, creates more efficient disease control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Spatial analysis
- Disease control
Background:
- Infectious disease outbreaks necessitate protection zones.
- Historically, equal radius (ER) protection zones are used.
- ER zones assume uniform epidemic spread, ignoring local connectivity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the efficacy of ER protection zones.
- To compare ER zones with network-based (CN) protection zones.
- To determine if network properties influence epidemic dispersal.
Main Methods:
- Generated a geographically explicit epidemic scenario.
- Created protection zones with varying geometries.
- Compared cost-benefit of ER zones versus CN zones (road networks).
Main Results:
- ER circles showed significant variation (up to 4x) in units at risk.
- Network properties were evident even in small areas (<115 km²).
- CN policy required 20% less area and had 23.8% higher density of units at risk/km².
Conclusions:
- ER protection zones are less effective than CN-based zones.
- Incorporating connectivity (e.g., road networks) optimizes protection zone efficacy.
- Analyzing local geographical factors enhances epidemic control measures.
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