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Published on: September 12, 2014
Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication
1School of Aviation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia. carloc@unsw.edu.au
Summary
Sydney residents exhibit optimism bias regarding terrorism, perceiving a lower personal risk of experiencing attacks. Despite this bias and a higher perceived likelihood of attacks in Sydney, individual preparedness for terrorism remains low, posing challenges for public safety initiatives.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Risk Perception
- Emergency Management
Background:
- Terrorism risk is typically managed at policy and infrastructure levels.
- Public perception of terrorism likelihood and its impact on individual preparedness is under-examined.
- Optimism bias, the underestimation of personal risk, may reduce the adoption of protective measures against terrorism.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate optimism bias in Sydney residents concerning terrorist events.
- To assess the relationship between perceived terrorism risk and individual preparedness in Sydney.
- To understand public perceptions of terrorism likelihood in Sydney compared to other Australian cities.
Main Methods:
- An online survey was administered to 164 participants.
- Participants' perceptions of personal and general likelihood of experiencing terrorist events were measured.
- Preparedness for terrorism at household, workplace, and central business district levels was assessed.
Main Results:
- Significant optimism bias was found for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing them.
- Sydney residents perceived a higher likelihood of terrorist attacks occurring in Sydney within five years.
- Household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was low, as was awareness of emergency strategies.
Conclusions:
- Perceived high risk of terrorism in one's city coupled with low preparedness creates a communication and management challenge.
- Future anti-terrorism strategies should emphasize diverse targets and simple disaster mitigation plans.
- Addressing optimism bias is crucial for enhancing public preparedness and response to terrorism.
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