Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 24, 2026
Establishment and Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model for Pathological Escalation of Gastric Low-Grade Intraepithelial Neoplasia
Published on: February 16, 2024
A novel model might predict the risk of chronic atrophic gastritis: a multicenter prospective study in China
Qin-Yan Gao1, Zhen-Hua Wang, Eugene You Hao Chooi
1Key Laboratory of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Ministry of Health-Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, State Key Laboratory of Oncogene and Related Genes, 145 Middle Shandong Rd, Shanghai, China.
Objective:
To find a new way to predict the risk of chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG).
Material And Methods:
All the participants received endoscopy and histological examination as well as a standard questionnaire. Multivariate analysis was performed by logistic regression to build the CAG risk model. The accuracy was evaluated by 1418 subjects recruited from six medical centers. 63 subjects received another endoscopy after 1-year follow-up and divided into three groups according to the comparison of the histological results (improved, no change and worse).
Results:
The model showed relatively good discrimination, with an AUROC of 0.888 (95% CI 0.852-0.925). A final probability cut-off score of 0.73 was used to predict the presence (>0.73) or absence of CAG (≤0.73). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 82.8%, 74.7%, 91.8% and 56%, respectively. The predicted results of 1418 subjects compared with the histological results were quite similar. There was a significant difference of the scores between three groups who were followed-up for 1 year (F = 3.248, p = 0.046). In multiple comparisons, a significant difference existed between Group A (the histological results had improved after 1-year follow-up) and Group C (the results were worse) (p = 0.019).
Conclusions:
This is the first demonstration of the use of a mathematical model for CAG risk screening. Endoscopy should be recommended to those who are positive according to the model, to detect CAG early and conserve medical resources. In those who have a high-risk score, closer follow-up is needed.
Related Concept Videos
01:26Gastritis II: Pathophysiology
01:28Peptic Ulcer Disease III: Clinical Manifestations and Diagnostic Studies
Few clinical manifestations differentiate gastric ulcers from duodenal ulcers. Distinctions in the location, timing, and pain relief are crucial for healthcare providers in differentiating between gastric and duodenal ulcers during clinical assessments.
01:27Gastritis-I: Introduction and Types
Acute gastritis presents as a sudden inflammation triggered by various stressors to the stomach lining, such as exposure to corrosive agents, local irritants like aspirin and other NSAIDs, alcohol consumption, radiation therapy, physical trauma, severe burns, sepsis,...
01:23Gastritis III: Clinical Manifestations and Management
Clinical manifestations of acute gastritis
The patient with acute gastritis may have a rapid onset of symptoms, such as epigastric pain or discomfort, dyspepsia, anorexia, hiccups, or nausea and vomiting, which can last from a few hours to a few days. Erosive or hemorrhagic gastritis may cause bleeding, which may manifest as blood in vomit or as...