The contribution of situational probability information to anticipatory skill

To determine the contribution of situational probability information to the anticipatory responses of skilled tennis players representative of two different stages of development.

Participants were required to predict the location of tennis serves presented to them on a plasma touchscreen from the perspective of the receiver.

Serves were sequenced into a series of games and sets with a score presented before each point, typical of a game of tennis. The game score was manipulated to provide advance probability information. The location of the serve for the first point of each game was always directed to the same location. A total of 12 service games consisting of 96 points were presented with interest in whether players would detect the relationship between the game score and resultant serve location.

A 2×12 (age×service game) ANOVA with repeated measures on the second factor revealed a significant age by service game interaction for response time (F₁₁,₂₉₇=3.86, p<0.05, η(p)²=.12). The older players picked up the occurrence of the first point service pattern after the ninth service game whereas the younger, players did not. There were no significant response accuracy differences between the groups in relation to the first point.

The findings highlight the important role of situational probability information, in addition to movement kinematics, for successful anticipatory performance and suggest that the pick-up of such information is not utilised by younger players.