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Mortality predictive indexes for the community-dwelling elderly US population.
Zi Zhang1, Dawei Xie, Jibby E Kurichi
1Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, USA.
Journal of General Internal Medicine
|March 17, 2012
Summary
Developed simple mortality prediction tools for elderly individuals living in the community. These indexes use key factors like age and functional status to estimate 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival probabilities.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Limited predictive tools exist for long-term mortality in community-dwelling elderly.
- Parsimonious predictive indexes are crucial for clinical and policy decisions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To create 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality predictive indexes for community-dwelling elderly.
- To validate these indexes using a nationally representative sample.
Main Methods:
- Cohort study utilizing the Second Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA II).
- Included 7,373 community-dwelling individuals aged 70+.
- Collected sociodemographics, impairments, medical diagnoses, and functional status (IADL stages).
Main Results:
- Mortality rates were 3.7% (1-year), 23.3% (5-year), and 49.8% (10-year).
- Identified key predictors including age, sex, coronary artery disease, and IADL stages.
- Developed three predictive indexes with good predictive accuracy (C-statistics ranging from 0.72 to 0.75).
Conclusions:
- The developed indexes offer parsimonious and easy-to-use tools for predicting mortality in community settings.
- These indexes can aid in patient prognosis and intervention comparisons.
- Incorporating Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) stages simplifies prediction when detailed medical data is unavailable.
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