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Published on: December 3, 2011
Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms using animal and vector movements
Joanne Turner1, Roger G Bowers, Matthew Baylis
1Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, UK. j.turner@liverpool.ac.uk
Scientific Reports
|March 21, 2012
Summary
Bluetongue virus outbreaks in England are primarily driven by vector dispersal, not animal movement. Targeted movement restrictions effectively control bluetongue spread in ruminants.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Disease modeling
- Arthropod-borne diseases
Background:
- Bluetongue is a significant notifiable ruminant disease.
- The bluetongue virus (BTV) first appeared in England in 2007.
- Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a novel mathematical model for bluetongue transmission.
- To investigate the impact of host movement and vector dispersal on outbreak dynamics.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of movement restrictions.
Main Methods:
- Developed a spatio-temporal model incorporating farm-to-farm animal movements and vector dispersal.
- Included seasonal variation in vector-to-host ratios.
- Modeled batch sheep movements and dynamic restriction zones.
- Simulated bluetongue virus transmission in eastern England.
Main Results:
- Vector parameters significantly influence bluetongue outbreak size.
- Sustained transmission relies on between-herd vector transmission.
- Movement restrictions effectively reduce outbreak size.
- Targeted restrictions are as effective as total bans.
Conclusions:
- Vector ecology is the primary driver of bluetongue spread.
- Strategic movement restrictions are key for disease control.
- The model framework is adaptable to other vector-borne livestock diseases.
