Long term survival and severe rebleeding after variceal sclerotherapy

Of 197 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted because of bleeding from esophageal varices, 133 were included in a prospective study of elective sclerotherapy. We evaluated the incidence of extensive rebleeding and mortality rate. The period of study was 54 months and the mean follow-up period was 21 months. Forty-one patients had severe rebleeding and a majority of the episodes occurred during the first year. Only four patients had more than five sessions of sclerosis when rebleeding occurred. The probability rate for patients to be free of severe rebleeding after 48 months, according to Pugh's classification, was 88 per cent for those with grade A, 50 percent for grade B and 43 percent for grade C. The over-all mortality rate was 38.8 per cent (53 patients), with the highest rate noted during the first year. The mortality rate of patients with severe rebleeding was much higher than that of those who did not rebleed. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis at four years was 52 per cent, and survival rates in relation to Pugh's classification were 73 per cent for A, 53 per cent for B and 34 per cent for C. Differences between the three groups were statistically significant. Therefore, because of the high mortality rate associated with patients with cirrhosis and extensive rebleeding during the first year, it is important to achieve, as soon as possible, eradication of esophageal varices.