Evaluation of crude annual parturition rate estimates in a small-holder African ruminant farming system

Many parameters have been proposed for evaluating livestock reproduction performances in tropical farming systems. In tropical free-ranged and small-holder systems, where reproduction cycles cannot be individually observed without expensive field surveys, one of these parameters is the average number of parturitions (h) expected by reproductive female, if the female spends the whole year in the herd. A frequent approach for estimating h is to use the ratio hc = m/T, so-called 'crude annual parturition rate', where m is the observed number of parturitions and T is the total time of presence of the reproductive females in the herd during the year. The bias encountered when h is estimated by hc was evaluated in this paper. Six methods of estimation were used, where T was the exact observed time of presence (hc1) or approximated by monthly, quarterly, half-yearly and yearly averages or final size of the reproductive herd size (hc2 to hc6). Data came from long-term follow-up of cattle and small-ruminant herds (with data recorded at animal level) in extensive agro-pastoral systems in Senegal. In general, h was correctly estimated by hc1. Nevertheless hc1 was sensitive to competing risks (e.g. deaths, sales and slaughtering of reproductive females) and was seriously biased when intensive withdrawals of females occurred before or during the parturition peak. Reliability of crude rates progressively decreased from hc2 to hc6, corresponding to the degradation of information used for approximating T. This decrease was much lower for cattle (for which all methods had acceptable reliability) than for small ruminants. Among the compared methods, the lower reliability was observed for hc6 that we do not recommend for small ruminants. Methods hc5 and hc6 are currently used in rapid cross-sectional retrospective surveys based on the recall of the farmers on the demographic events which occurred in the herd over the last past 12 months. The study has showed that such surveys and estimates hc5 and hc6 can generate seriously biased results. More globally, annual parturition rates can be highly variable depending on the 12-month periods considered. Annual parturition rates estimated on short-term data, even with precise herd follow-up surveys, must be considered cautiously.