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Discharge destination as a surrogate for Modified Rankin Scale defined outcomes at 3- and 12-months poststroke among
Adnan I Qureshi1, Saqib A Chaudhry, Biggya L Sapkota
1Dept of Neurology, University of Minnesota, 12-100 PWB, 516 Delaware St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA. qureshai@gmail.com
Objective:
To determine the predictive value of discharge destination as a surrogate for defining unfavorable outcome at 3- and 12-months poststroke.
Design:
Analysis of the prospectively collected data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in patients with ischemic stroke presenting within 3 hours of symptom onset.
Setting:
Post hoc analysis of patients recruited in a clinical trial.
Participants:
Patients (N=530) discharged alive from the hospital after ischemic stroke.
Interventions:
Not applicable.
Main Outcome Measures:
Positive and negative predictive value and likelihood ratios of discharge destination for unfavorable outcome at 3- and 12-months poststroke defined by a Modified Rankin Scale (MRS) score of 2 to 6, 3 to 6, or 4 to 6. A likelihood ratio indicates how many times more (or less) likely a particular discharge destination is seen in patients with an unfavorable outcome compared with those without unfavorable outcome.
Results:
The positive predictive value of nursing home and rehabilitation facility discharges was highest for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 (95%) and rehabilitation facility (89%) at 3-months poststroke, respectively. The positive predictive value of rehabilitation facility/nursing home (90%) was also highest for unfavorable outcomes defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 compared with those defined by MRS scores of 3 to 6 (79%) and 4 to 6 (57%). The positive likelihood ratio was highest for nursing home discharges (13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-41) followed by rehabilitation facility discharges for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 at 3-months poststroke (5.3; 95% CI, 3.5-7.9). The negative likelihood ratio was the highest for home discharge for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 (4.5; 95% CI, 3.4-6.1). A similar pattern was observed with unfavorable outcome defined using various thresholds at 12 months.
Conclusions:
Discharge destination can provide high predictive values and likelihood ratios for death and disability at 3-months poststroke, as defined by an MRS of score of 2 to 6.
