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Relative Risk01:12

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Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
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Updated: May 23, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
05:37

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model

Published on: September 16, 2022

Individual risk.

Ralph H Stern1

  • 1Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-5853, USA. stern@umich.edu

Journal of Clinical Hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.)
|March 31, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Individual risk is not a reliable measure of health outcomes. Reliable risk assessment requires grouping similar individuals, not relying on flawed individual probability estimates for clinical decisions.

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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
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Last Updated: May 23, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model

Published on: September 16, 2022

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
04:57

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data

Published on: October 23, 2020

Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Clinical Decision-Making
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Patient risk assessment is complex, often relying on statistical models.
  • Current models frequently present "individual risk" as a definitive probability.
  • This approach has inherent limitations due to the nature of probability and risk factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically evaluate the concept and reliability of "individual risk" in clinical settings.
  • To explain the reference class problem and its implications for risk prediction.
  • To propose alternative approaches for more robust clinical decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of probability and risk assessment.
  • Historical review of the reference class problem (John Venn, 1866).
  • Critique of current risk modeling practices in medicine.

Main Results:

  • "Individual risk" is an unreliable concept outside of Mendelian inheritance, representing conditional probabilities.
  • Risk estimates vary substantially based on the inclusion of different risk factors.
  • No reliable method exists to calculate a unique, true individual risk for a given outcome.

Conclusions:

  • The concept of individual risk is fundamentally flawed and should not be used as the sole criterion for clinical decisions.
  • Clinically important subgroups and direct clinical measures (e.g., blood pressure) are more reliable for decision-making.
  • Adopting subgroup-based assessments aligns with established statistical principles and improves clinical judgment.