Predictive models for maximum recommended therapeutic dose of antiretroviral drugs

A novel method for predicting maximum recommended therapeutic dose (MRTD) is presented using quantitative structure property relationships (QSPRs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). MRTD data of 31 structurally diverse Antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) were collected from FDA MRTD Database or package inserts. Molecular property descriptors of each compound, that is, molecular mass, aqueous solubility, lipophilicity, biotransformation half life, oxidation half life, and biodegradation probability were calculated from their SMILES codes. A training set (n = 23) was used to construct multiple linear regression and back propagation neural network models. The models were validated using an external test set (n = 8) which demonstrated that MRTD values may be predicted with reasonable accuracy. Model predictability was described by root mean squared errors (RMSEs), Kendall's correlation coefficients (tau), P-values, and Bland Altman plots for method comparisons. MRTD was predicted by a 6-3-1 neural network model (RMSE = 13.67, tau = 0.643, P = 0.035) more accurately than by the multiple linear regression (RMSE = 27.27, tau = 0.714, P = 0.019) model. Both models illustrated a moderate correlation between aqueous solubility of antiretroviral drugs and maximum therapeutic dose. MRTD prediction may assist in the design of safer, more effective treatments for HIV infection.