Can IMA-RNTCP stop TB by 2050?

Tuberculosis has been with mankind since time immemorial. No other disease has so much sociological, economic and health significance as tuberculosis. In the poorly functioning tuberculosis control programme, the ratio of incidence to prevalence may be as high as 1: 3.5. Experience and observations from both developed and developing countries have demonstrated that if case detection and cure rates in smear positive cases are consistently achieved to 70 % and 85 % respectively, the incidence would decline to 5% annually while prevalence decline very rapidly, being reduced to less than half of its previous level within three years. Since RNTCP India is based on scientific principles of DOTS strategy, its effective clinical and public health management, committed and co-ordinated efforts of public and private partners (IMA) would certainly lead to decline the prevalence (already declined from 586/1,00,000 in 1990 to 185/1,00,000 population in 2008 - 68 % reduction), mortality rate from 42/ 1,00,000 in 1990 to 21/1,00,000 in 2015 (already reduced to 24/1,00,000 in 2008 - 43 % reduction) as target set under indicator 23 of TB-related Millennium Development Goal. This kind of impact would result in halting and reversing TB Incidence to pave way for future effective control of TB, which may not remain a public health problem by 2050. Thus, TB control is a winnable battle.