Scientific expertise and the Athlete Biological Passport: 3 years of experience

Expert evaluation of biological data is a key component of the Athlete Biological Passport approach in the fight against doping. The evaluation consists of a longitudinal assessment of biological variables to determine the probability of the data being physiological on the basis of the athlete's on own previous values (performed by an automated software system using a Bayesian model) and a subjective evaluation of the results in view of possible causes (performed by experts). The role of the expert is therefore a key component in the process. Experts should be qualified to evaluate the data regarding possible explanations related to the influence of doping products and methods, analytical issues, and the influence of exercise or pathological conditions. The evaluation provides a scientific basis for the decision taken by a disciplinary panel. This evaluation should therefore encompass and balance all possible causes for a given blood profile and provide a likelihood for potential scenarios (pathology, normal variation, doping) that might have caused the pattern. It should comply with the standards for the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensics. On the basis of their evaluation of profiles, experts might provide assistance in planning appropriate target testing schemes.