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Updated: Jul 17, 2026
20:36
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Alternative projections of the U.S. population
1Industrial Relations Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
Demography
|November 1, 1990
Summary
U.S. population projections may be too conservative, underestimating future growth. Alternative scenarios suggest significantly larger populations and a greater elderly demographic than official estimates indicate.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- The U.S. Bureau of the Census has released new population projections.
- Current projections are argued to be too conservative.
- They discount potential baby booms and assume slow mortality decline and low immigration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the impact of alternative fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions on U.S. population size and age composition.
- To challenge the conservatism of current U.S. population projections.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of alternative demographic scenarios.
- Comparison with U.S. Census Bureau projections.
- Modeling population size and age structure.
Main Results:
- The Census Bureau's highest projection could be considered a reasonable middle projection.
- A plausible high projection indicates a U.S. population 300 million larger by 2080 than the Bureau's highest estimate.
- The population aged 85 and older could be more than double the Bureau's highest estimate.
Conclusions:
- Current U.S. population projections are likely too conservative.
- Future population growth and age composition may differ significantly from official estimates.
- There is substantial uncertainty regarding the pace of future U.S. population growth.
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