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Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate
1Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Grič 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia.
The Journal of Agricultural Science
|April 17, 2012
Summary
Climate warming is negatively impacting maize yields in Croatia. Future climate scenarios predict a significant decrease in maize production due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, threatening this vital crop.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Crop Modeling
Background:
- Maize is a crucial crop in Croatia, vulnerable to climate change impacts.
- Understanding climate warming effects on maize is vital for food security and agricultural planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of present and future climate conditions on maize growth and yield in Croatia.
- To utilize the Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model for maize yield projections.
Main Methods:
- Employed the DSSAT 4.0 crop-weather model with historical meteorological data (1949-2004) from Zagreb-Maksimir.
- Integrated pedological, physiological, and genetic data from a 1999 field experiment.
- Applied future climate scenarios for Croatia to assess end-of-century impacts.
Main Results:
- Observed significant advancements in maize silking (1.4 days/decade) and maturity (4.5 days/decade) since the mid-1990s.
- Current climate trends indicate a decrease in maize biomass (122 kg/ha) and yield (216 kg/ha) per decade.
- Future climate projections suggest a 9% reduction in maize yield due to increased temperatures and altered precipitation, despite CO2 fertilization effects.
Conclusions:
- Climate warming poses a significant threat to maize production in continental Croatia.
- Rising temperatures and reduced precipitation are the primary drivers of projected yield declines.
- Adaptation strategies are necessary to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on maize cultivation.
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