[Tobacco epidemiology]

The World Health Organisation attributed to tobacco 5.1 million deaths worldwide in 2004 which represents 9% of the total number of deaths. In France, the number of deaths attributable to tobacco in 2004 is 73 000 which represents 14% of the total mortality. It includes 85% of lung cancer mortality, 70% of chronic obstructive lung disease mortality and 10% of cardiovascular disease mortality. Tobacco is the cause of 22% of the deaths among French men and 5% of the deaths among French women in 2004. Because of the time lag of several decades between smoking initiation in a population and the occurrence of tobacco induced cancers or chronic respiratory diseases, tobacco attributable mortality will continue to increase in France among the female population for at least 20 years, even if tobacco consumption decreases in the next 10 years. The risk of death from lung cancer will exceed the risk of death from breast cancer in 2 or 3 years, a catastrophe observed in the US in 1987 and predicted for France many years ago!