Excess mortality among the elderly in 12 European countries, February and March 2012

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Virology
• Public Health

Background:

• Excess mortality in the elderly population is a key indicator of public health impact during winter seasons.
• Recent influenza seasons (pandemic and post-pandemic) showed different patterns of mortality.
• European countries conduct weekly all-cause mortality monitoring.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze excess mortality trends in elderly populations across 12 European countries in early 2012.
• To investigate the potential drivers of observed excess deaths, specifically influenza A(H3N2) and cold weather.
• To compare the 2012 influenza season's impact with previous pandemic and post-pandemic periods.

Main Methods:

• Utilized weekly all-cause mortality data from 12 European countries.
• Focused on the elderly demographic during February and March 2012.
• Correlated mortality data with influenza virus surveillance and meteorological data.

Main Results:

• Observed excess deaths among the elderly in 12 European countries during February-March 2012.
• Preliminary data suggest the impact of influenza A(H3N2) virus.
• Potential contribution of a cold snap to the increased mortality was noted.

Conclusions:

• The 2012 winter season exhibited a distinct mortality pattern in European elderly populations.
• Influenza A(H3N2) resurgence is a likely primary cause of the excess elderly mortality.
• Combined effects of influenza and cold weather warrant further investigation for public health preparedness.