Trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Croatia, 1988-2008

To describe and interpret prostate cancer incidence and mortality trends in Croatia between 1988 and 2008.

Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of prostate cancer deaths was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. We also used population estimates for Croatia from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Age standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by the direct standardization method. To describe time trends of incidence and mortality, joinpoint regression analysis was used.

Average age-standardized incidence rate between the first and last five-year period doubled, from 19.0/100,000 in 1988-1992 to 39.1 per 100,000 in 2004-2008. Age-standardized mortality rate increased by 6.9%, from 14.5 to 15.5 per 100,000. Joinpoint analysis of incidence identified two joinpoints. The increasing incidence trend started from 1997, with the estimated annual percent of change (EAPC) of 12.9% from 1997-2002 and of 4.1% from 2002-2008. Joinpoint analyses of mortality identified one joinpoint. Mortality trend first decreased, with EAPC of -3.0% from 1988-1995 to increase later with EAPC of 2.0% from 1995-2008.

The incidence of prostate cancer in Croatia has been on the increase since 1997. Trend in mortality is increasing, contrary to the trends in some higher-income countries. An improvement in the availability of different treatment modalities as well as establishing prostate cancer units could have a positive impact on prostate cancer mortality in Croatia.