Determining the optimal vaccine vial size in developing countries: a Monte Carlo simulation approach

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Systems Management
• Vaccinology

Background:

• Outreach immunization services are vital for improving vaccine coverage in rural, developing areas.
• High vaccine wastage, particularly open vial wastage (OVW), presents a significant challenge.
• OVW is influenced by vial size and the unpredictable number of participants at outreach sessions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the optimal vial size and reordering point for outreach immunization.
• To minimize vaccine wastage while balancing procurement and operational costs.
• To develop an (nQ, r, T) lot-sizing policy for efficient vaccine management.

Main Methods:

• Integration of a binary integer-programming model with Monte Carlo simulation.
• Analysis of the trade-off between procurement costs and vaccine wastage.
• Modeling the impact of vial size and session size on OVW.

Main Results:

• The study identifies optimal strategies for vial size selection and inventory management.
• The proposed model helps achieve a balance between reducing OVW and managing costs.
• Effective lot-sizing policies can mitigate wastage in resource-limited settings.

Conclusions:

• Optimizing vial size and reordering points is essential for reducing vaccine wastage in outreach programs.
• The integrated modeling approach provides a framework for cost-effective vaccine supply chain management.
• Improved vaccine management strategies can enhance immunization program efficiency and impact in developing countries.