Dual-age-class population model to assess radiation dose effects on non-human biota populations

In the present paper, a two-age-class group, logistic growth model for generic populations of non-human biota is described in order to assess non-stochastic effects of low linear energy-transfer radiation using three endpoints: repairable radiation damage, impairment of reproductive ability and, at higher radiation dose rates, mortality. This model represents mathematically the exchange between two life stages considering fecundity, growth and mortality. Radiation effects are modeled with a built-in self-recovery pool whereupon individuals can repair themselves. In acute effects mode, the repairing pool becomes depleted due to radiation and the model tends to lethality mode. A base calibration of the model's two free parameters is possible assuming that in acute mode 50% of the individuals die on 30 days when a radiation dose equal to the LD(50/30) is applied during that period. The model, which requires 10 species-dependent life-history parameters, was applied to fish and mammals. Its use in the derivation of dose-rate screening values for the protection of non-human biota from the effects of ionizing radiation is demonstrated through several applications. First, results of model testing with radiation effects data for fish populations from the EPIC project show the predictive capability of the model in a practical case. Secondly, the model was further verified with FREDERICA radiation effects data for mice and voles. Then, consolidated predictions for mouse, rabbit, dog and deer were generated for use in a population model comparison made within the IAEA EMRAS II project. Taken together, model predictions suggest that radiation effects are more harmful for larger organisms that generate lower numbers of offspring. For small mammal and fish populations, dose rates that are below 0.02 Gy day(-1) are not fatal; in contrast, for large mammals, chronic exposure at this level is predicted to be harmful. At low exposure rates similar to the ERICA screening dose rate of 2.4 × 10(-4) Gy day(-1), long-term effects on the survivability of populations are negligible, supporting the appropriateness of this value for radiological assessments to wildlife.