A CASE-SAR analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon carcinogenicity

A CASE SAR analysis was performed on a selected database of PAHs to investigate the possible use of the CASE method as an aid for preliminary assessment of carcinogenic potential of untested environmental PAHs. A data set, denoted LEARN, consisting of 78 PAHs and their experimental carcinogenicities was used to 'train' the CASE method and derive the CASE fragments. 8 activating fragments and 4 inactivating fragments were identified. These fragments predicted the activities of 94% of the LEARN set correctly. The biological significance of several of these fragments are rationalized in light of the current theories of PAH carcinogenesis. Using these fragments, the potential activities of a database of 106, mostly untested PAHs, denoted TEST, were predicted. These were compared to 'expert judgement' predictions based on mechanistic considerations in order to evaluate the extent of concordance between these two methods and their respective strengths and weaknesses. Initial poor agreement (64%) was attributed to limitations of the LEARN database involving inadequate representation of 2- and 3-ring PAH subclasses. When these subclasses were excluded from the TEST database, the concordance improved to 90%. The CASE fragments were also used to predict the activities of a database of 24 PAHs, denoted VALIDATE (not included in the LEARN set) for which carcinogenicity data were available. The total prediction accuracy of 75% (89% of the actives correctly identified), despite the structural diversity of the VALIDATE set, provided independent evidence of the utility of the present CASE results. A close examination of the CASE incorrect predictions was conducted to delineate inadequancies of these CASE results in order to provide cautionary guidance for future application of the method. Finally, the present results were compared to the results of a previous CASE analysis based on a more limited PAH data set, and were found to be of greater general utility. It is concluded that the CASE fragments derived in the current study should provide a useful tool for assisting and complementing 'expert judgement' in the preliminary screening of PAHs for carcinogenic activity.