Vascular disease and stroke risk in atrial fibrillation: a nationwide cohort study

Jonas Bjerring Olesen1, Gregory Y H Lip, Deirdre A Lane

  • 1Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital Gentofte, Hellerup, Denmark. jo@heart.dk

Insights

Vascular disease is an independent risk factor for stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. Adding vascular disease to the CHADS(2) score improves stroke risk prediction.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Neurology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Atrial fibrillation increases stroke risk.
  • Vascular disease is a potential, though less validated, risk factor for stroke in atrial fibrillation.
  • The CHADS(2) score is a common tool for stratifying stroke risk in these patients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if vascular disease is an independent risk factor for stroke/thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation.
  • To assess if incorporating vascular disease into risk stratification improves upon the existing CHADS(2) score.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized nationwide Danish registers from 1997-2008.
  • Included patients with atrial fibrillation not on anticoagulation.
  • Employed Cox regression analyses and evaluated risk prediction improvement using Net Reclassification Improvement and Integrated Discrimination Improvement.

Main Results:

  • 17.4% of 87,202 atrial fibrillation patients had vascular disease.
  • Vascular disease independently increased stroke/thromboembolism risk (HR 1.12).
  • Peripheral artery disease posed a higher risk than myocardial infarction alone; vascular disease significantly improved CHADS(2) score predictive ability.

Conclusions:

  • Vascular disease is a significant independent predictor of stroke/thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation.
  • The inclusion of vascular disease enhances the predictive accuracy of the CHADS(2) score for stroke risk stratification.
Abstract

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