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Updated: May 22, 2026
09:05
Measurements of CO2 Fluxes at Non-Ideal Eddy Covariance Sites
Published on: June 24, 2019
Applying econometrics to the carbon dioxide "control knob"
1Emeritus Faculty, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. tcurtin@bigblue.net.au
Thescientificworldjournal
|May 26, 2012
Summary
Atmospheric water vapor, not just noncondensing greenhouse gases, is the primary driver of global temperature change. This research challenges the view of water vapor as solely a feedback, identifying it as a major forcing agent.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
- Radiative Transfer
Background:
- Current climate models attribute global temperature rise primarily to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases.
- Water vapor is acknowledged as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG), but often categorized as a feedback rather than an initial forcing agent.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test propositions that global temperature change is mainly caused by anthropogenic noncondensing GHGs.
- To re-evaluate the role of atmospheric water vapor (H2O) in the Earth's greenhouse effect, distinguishing between forcing and feedback mechanisms.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of radiative forcing and feedback mechanisms related to greenhouse gases.
- Examination of the historical and current role of atmospheric water vapor in radiative forcing.
- Critique of existing models attributing initial warming solely to noncondensing GHGs.
Main Results:
- Initial radiative forcing is not exclusively from noncondensing GHGs; atmospheric water vapor is a significant, pre-existing forcing agent.
- Evidence does not support that increased noncondensing GHGs have measurably increased atmospheric water vapor.
- Water vapor is identified as the primary forcing agent, responsible for over 50% of the total greenhouse gas effect.
Conclusions:
- Water vapor acts as a primary forcing agent in the greenhouse effect, not merely a feedback.
- Controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide may not be an effective "control knob" for global temperature, contrary to some established claims.
- A revised understanding of water vapor's role is crucial for accurate climate change modeling and mitigation strategies.
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