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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 22, 2026

Continuous Instream Monitoring of Nutrients and Sediment in Agricultural Watersheds
12:50

Continuous Instream Monitoring of Nutrients and Sediment in Agricultural Watersheds

Published on: September 26, 2017

A Bayesian approach for calculating variable total maximum daily loads and uncertainty assessment.

Dingjiang Chen1, Randy A Dahlgren, Yena Shen

  • 1Department of Natural Resources, College of Environment and Natural Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.

The Science of the Total Environment
|May 29, 2012
PubMed
Summary

This study developed a variable total maximum daily load (TMDL) for total nitrogen (TN) using Bayesian statistics and load duration curves. The approach accounts for flow variability and uncertainty in nonpoint source pollution management.

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Last Updated: May 22, 2026

Continuous Instream Monitoring of Nutrients and Sediment in Agricultural Watersheds
12:50

Continuous Instream Monitoring of Nutrients and Sediment in Agricultural Watersheds

Published on: September 26, 2017

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Water Quality Management
  • Agricultural Hydrology

Background:

  • Nonpoint source pollution, particularly total nitrogen (TN), poses challenges due to variability and uncertainty.
  • Effective management requires adaptive strategies that consider hydrological conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a variable total maximum daily load (TMDL) framework for total nitrogen (TN).
  • To integrate Bayesian statistics and load duration curves for assessing flow-dependent variability and uncertainty in TN pollution.
  • To support adaptive implementation of TMDL programs in agricultural watersheds.

Main Methods:

  • Integrated a one-dimensional water quality model with Bayesian statistics and load duration curve methods.
  • Employed Bayesian inference to calibrate area-specific export rate (E) and in-stream loss rate coefficient (K) for TN.
  • Simulated catchment TN export load, TMDL, and required load reduction, including uncertainty assessments.

Main Results:

  • TN export load, TMDL, and required load reduction increased with stream water discharge.
  • Uncertainties in estimates showed temporal variability, being higher during high flow regimes.
  • Required load reductions for 90% TN compliance varied from 1.7 × 10³ kg/d (low flow) to 14.6 × 10³ kg/d (high flow).

Conclusions:

  • The integrated approach provides a robust method for variable TMDL development.
  • Decision-makers can determine flow-dependent load reductions and associated uncertainties.
  • This supports adaptive management strategies for nonpoint source pollution control.