Assessing paternities with inconclusive STR results: The suitability of bi-allelic markers

In paternity testing the genetic profiles of the individuals are used to compare the relative likelihoods of the alleged father and the child being related as father/offspring against, usually, being unrelated. In the great majority of the cases, analyses with the widely used sets of short tandem repeat markers (STRs) provide powerful statistical evidence favouring one of the alternative hypotheses. Nevertheless, there are situations where the final statistical result is ambiguous, mostly because the alleged father shows incompatible genotypes at a few loci along with a very high paternity index in the remaining systems. In these cases, the possibility that the alleged father is actually a close relative of the real one (son, father or brother) can reasonably be raised. In such cases, when the statistical evidence obtained is considered as insufficient, the common practice is to extend the set of analysed markers. In this context, many authors have suggested that bi-allelic markers, such as single nucleotide (SNP) or insertion/deletion (Indel) polymorphisms, are markers of choice, as they are incomparably less prone to mutation than STRs. In this work we address the soundness of this claim and the consequences of this strategy, analyzing the a priori odds both for (a) expected number of Mendelian incompatibilities, and (b) expected values for the final likelihood ratios. Moreover, one hundred real pairs of second degree relatives, typed for two sets of markers: 15 STRs plus 38 Indels, were used to simulate paternity testing. Our data show that, for the number of markers commonly considered, the results from an extended battery of SNPs or Indels should be interpreted with caution when relatives are possibly involved.