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Published on: November 10, 2023
Analyzing transformation of myelodysplastic syndrome to secondary acute myeloid leukemia using a large patient
Ofir Shukron1, Vladimir Vainstein, Andrea Kündgen
1Institute for Medical Biomathematics (IMBM), Bene Ataroth, Israel.
Abstract:
One-third of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) progress to secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML), with its concomitant poor prognosis. Recently, multiple mutations have been identified in association with MDS-to-sAMLtransition, but it is still unclear whether all these mutations are necessary for transformation. If multiple independent mutations are required for the transformation, sAML risk should increase with time from MDS diagnosis. In contrast, if a single critical biological event determines sAML transformation; its risk should be constant in time elapsing from MDS diagnosis. To elucidate this question, we studied a database of 1079 patients with MDS. We classified patients according to the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), using either the French-American-British (FAB) or the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, and statistically analyzed the resulting transformation risk curves of each group. The risk of transformation after MDS diagnosis remained constant in time within three out of four risk groups, and in all four risk groups, when patients were classified according to FAB or to the WHO-determined criteria, respectively. Further subdivision by blast percentage or cytogenetics had no influence on this result. Our analysis suggests that a single random biological event leads to transformation to sAML, thus calling for the exclusion of time since MDS diagnosis from the clinical decision-making process.
Insights
The risk of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) transforming into secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) appears constant over time. This suggests a single random event, not accumulated mutations, drives the transformation to sAML.
Area of Science:
- Hematology
- Oncology
- Cancer Biology
Background:
- Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) can progress to secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML), a condition with a poor prognosis.
- The exact biological events driving MDS to sAML transformation are not fully understood, with uncertainty regarding the necessity of multiple mutations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if the risk of transformation from MDS to sAML increases over time or remains constant.
- To investigate whether a single critical event or multiple accumulating mutations are responsible for sAML transformation.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a database comprising 1079 patients diagnosed with MDS.
- Classification of patients based on the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) using French-American-British (FAB) and World Health Organization (WHO) criteria.
- Statistical analysis of transformation risk curves over time for different patient subgroups.
Main Results:
- The risk of transformation to sAML remained constant over time in most patient groups, irrespective of IPSS, FAB, or WHO classification.
- Subgroup analysis based on blast percentage or cytogenetics did not alter the observed constant transformation risk.
- The findings support the hypothesis that a single random biological event triggers the transformation.
Conclusions:
- The transformation of MDS to sAML is likely driven by a single random biological event.
- Time elapsed since MDS diagnosis may not be a critical factor in predicting sAML transformation risk.
- Clinical decision-making processes regarding sAML risk should potentially exclude time since MDS diagnosis.
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