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Hurricane track forecast cones from fluctuations.
T Meuel1, G Prado, F Seychelles
1Université Bordeaux 1, Laboratoire Ondes et Matière d’aquitaine (UMR 5798 CNRS), 33405 Talence, France.
Scientific Reports
|June 16, 2012
Summary
This study introduces a novel method for predicting tropical cyclone tracks using statistical deviation properties. The new approach generates forecast corridors, improving landfall location uncertainty for hurricanes.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology
- Atmospheric Sciences
- Climate Dynamics
Background:
- Tropical cyclone track prediction involves inherent uncertainties.
- Current methods use forecast cones to represent probable cyclone locations, but lack direct statistical linkage to track deviations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a simple method for predicting tropical cyclone trajectory corridors.
- To enhance the understanding of track forecast cones by linking them to statistical deviation properties.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing statistical properties of historical track deviations.
- Implementing a new scheme to predict future cyclone trajectory corridors.
Main Results:
- The proposed method generates forecast corridors for cyclone trajectories.
- Demonstrated effectiveness using examples from Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Jimena.
- Corridors provide trajectory predictions up to 50 hours before landfall.
Conclusions:
- The new method offers a statistically grounded approach to cyclone track forecasting.
- These forecast corridors provide valuable insights into track prediction uncertainty.
- The approach refines existing track forecast cones by incorporating deviation statistics.
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