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Secularization, Union Formation Practices, and Marital Stability: Evidence from Italy
Summary
Selectivity, not the act itself, explains higher divorce rates for cohabiting and civil marriages. Once unobserved factors are accounted for, the link between these marriage types and divorce disappears.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Demography
- Family Studies
Background:
- Descriptive statistics suggest civil marriages and those with premarital cohabitation are less stable and more prone to divorce.
- Existing literature highlights the role of selectivity in the cohabitation-divorce link, but evidence for civil marriage selectivity is lacking.
- Italy presents a unique context due to the recent rise in both premarital cohabitation and civil marriage.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of selectivity in the relationship between premarital cohabitation, civil marriage, and divorce.
- To analyze the Italian context regarding marriage stability and cohabitation.
- To determine if observed higher divorce rates are causally linked to cohabitation and civil marriage or due to unobserved factors.
Main Methods:
- Utilized micro-level data from a 2003 national representative survey in Italy.
- Developed a multiprocess model to account for unobserved heterogeneity across three decisions: premarital cohabitation, civil marriage, and divorce.
- Correlated unobserved heterogeneity across these decisions to disentangle selectivity effects.
Main Results:
- Selectivity is identified as the primary driver of increased divorce rates among individuals who experience both premarital cohabitation and civil marriage.
- After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity (selectivity), the causal effect of premarital cohabitation and civil marriage on union dissolution becomes statistically insignificant.
- The findings suggest that individuals choosing these marriage paths may possess pre-existing characteristics that independently increase divorce risk.
Conclusions:
- The higher instability associated with premarital cohabitation and civil marriage is largely attributable to self-selection effects, not the practices themselves.
- Once selectivity is accounted for, there is no significant causal link between experiencing premarital cohabitation followed by civil marriage and subsequent divorce.
- Policy or intervention strategies aimed at reducing divorce rates should consider underlying factors influencing partner selection and marriage decisions rather than focusing solely on cohabitation or civil marriage.
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