Further development of forensic eye color predictive tests

In forensic analysis predictive tests for external visible characteristics (or EVCs), including inference of iris color, represent a potentially useful tool to guide criminal investigations. Two recent studies, both focused on forensic testing, have analyzed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes underlying common eye color variation (Mengel-From et al., Forensic Sci. Int. Genet. 4:323 and Walsh et al., Forensic Sci. Int. Genet. 5:170). Each study arrived at different recommendations for eye color predictive tests aiming to type the most closely associated SNPs, although both confirmed rs12913832 in HERC2 as the key predictor, widely recognized as the most strongly associated marker with blue and brown iris colors. Differences between these two studies in identification of other eye color predictors may partly arise from varying approaches to assigning phenotypes, notably those not unequivocally blue or dark brown and therefore occupying an intermediate iris color continuum. We have developed two single base extension assays typing 37 SNPs in pigmentation-associated genes to study SNP-genotype based prediction of eye, skin, and hair color variation. These assays were used to test the performance of different sets of eye color predictors in 416 subjects from six populations of north and south Europe. The presence of a complex and continuous range of intermediate phenotypes distinct from blue and brown eye colors was confirmed by establishing eye color populations compared to genetic clusters defined using Structure software. Our study explored the effect of an expanded SNP combination beyond six markers has on the ability to predict eye color in a forensic test without extending the SNP assay excessively - thus maintaining a balance between the test's predictive value and an ability to reliably type challenging DNA with a multiplex of manageable size. Our evaluation used AUC analysis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves) and naïve Bayesian likelihood-based classification approaches. To provide flexibility in SNP-based eye color predictive tests in forensic applications we modified an online Bayesian classifier, originally developed for genetic ancestry analysis, to provide a straightforward system to assign eye color likelihoods from a SNP profile combining additional informative markers from the predictors analyzed by our study plus those of Walsh and Mengel-From. Two advantages of the online classifier is the ability to submit incomplete SNP profiles, a common occurrence when typing challenging DNA, and the ability to handle physically linked SNPs showing independent effect, by allowing the user to input frequencies from SNP pairs or larger combinations. This system was used to include the submission of frequency data for the SNP pair rs12913832 and rs1129038: indicated by our study to be the two SNPs most closely associated to eye color.