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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 21, 2026

Influenza Virus Propagation in Embryonated Chicken Eggs

Influenza Virus Propagation in Embryonated Chicken Eggs

Published on: March 19, 2015

Evolution, safety, and highly pathogenic influenza viruses.

Marc Lipsitch¹, Joshua B Plotkin, Lone Simonsen

¹Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics and Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 23, 2012

Summary

Predicting influenza virus evolution is difficult, posing high risks for experiments with virulent strains. Explicit risk-benefit assessments are crucial for future research on dangerous pathogens.

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Area of Science:

Virology
Epidemiology
Risk Assessment

Background:

Influenza virus evolution is complex and difficult to predict from genetic sequences.
Laboratory studies of influenza viruses may not fully capture real-world risks.
Uncertainty in predicting viral evolution poses risks for experiments with potentially dangerous strains.

Purpose of the Study:

To highlight the inherent difficulties in predicting influenza virus evolution.
To emphasize the risks associated with experimental work on virulent influenza viruses.
To advocate for a cautious approach to research involving high-consequence pathogens.

Main Methods:

Review of existing knowledge on influenza virus evolution and predictability.
Analysis of the implications of evolutionary uncertainty for laboratory research.
Discussion of risk-benefit considerations for experiments with virulent pathogens.

Main Results:

Nucleotide sequence data provide imperfect predictions of virus phenotype and fitness.
Predicting the timing and course of viral evolution remains extremely challenging.
Laboratory observations have limitations in guiding field surveillance interpretation.

Conclusions:

The inherent unpredictability of influenza evolution means risks from experiments with mammalian-transmissible, virulent strains remain significant.
Laboratory findings may not adequately mitigate the risks of accidental or deliberate release of dangerous pathogens.
Future experiments with virulent pathogens with pandemic potential require explicit risk-benefit assessments.