The epidemic wave of influenza A (H1N1) in Brazil, 2009

This study describes the main features of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Brazil during 2009. Brazil is a large country that extends roughly from latitudes 5ºN to 34ºS. Brazil has tropical and sub-tropical climates, a heterogeneous population distribution, and intense urbanization in the southern portions of the country and along its Atlantic coast. Our analysis points to a wide variation in infection rates throughout the country, and includes both latitudinal effects and strong variations in detection rates. Two states (out of a total of 23) were responsible for 73% of all cases reported. Real time reproduction numbers demonstrate that influenza transmission was sustained in the country, beginning in May of 2009. Finally, this study discusses the challenges in understanding the infection dynamics of influenza and the adequacy of Brazil's influenza monitoring system.