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Hawai'i physician workforce assessment 2010.

Kelley Withy1, Tim Dall, David Sakamoto

  • 1John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawai'i, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA. withy@hawaii.edu

Hawai'I Journal of Medicine & Public Health : a Journal of Asia Pacific Medicine & Public Health
|June 28, 2012
PubMed
Summary

Hawaii faces a significant physician shortage, with a current deficit of over 600 doctors. This critical healthcare gap is projected to widen without immediate intervention to boost physician supply.

Keywords:
Physician workforceassessmenthealth workforcemanpowerprojectionssupply

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Area of Science:

  • Healthcare workforce analysis
  • Public health policy
  • Medical economics

Background:

  • The United States faces a projected physician shortage, with national estimates indicating a 15-20% deficit by 2020.
  • Hawai'i specifically experienced a 15% physician shortage on the Big Island in 2008.
  • This study addresses the need to determine physician supply and demand across the entire State of Hawai'i.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the current physician supply in Hawai'i.
  • To estimate the demand for physician services within the state.
  • To identify trends and project future physician workforce needs in Hawai'i.

Main Methods:

  • Compiled a comprehensive database of practicing physicians in Hawai'i using licensure lists and practice location data.
  • Developed a statistical model to estimate physician service demand based on demographic factors (age, ethnicity, gender) and health indicators (insurance, obesity).
  • Analyzed physician workforce dynamics, including annual new licenses and estimated retirements based on age data.

Main Results:

  • Identified 2,860 full-time equivalent practicing physicians in Hawai'i, excluding residents and fellows.
  • Calculated a current physician deficit exceeding 600 full-time equivalents.
  • Projected an annual increase in the shortage by 50-100 physicians if current trends persist, driven by retirements and population growth.

Conclusions:

  • Hawai'i is currently experiencing a 20% physician shortage.
  • The physician deficit in Hawai'i is expected to escalate.
  • Immediate implementation of mitigating strategies is crucial to address and reverse the worsening physician shortage.