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From hot hands to declining effects: the risks of small numbers
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
|June 30, 2012
Summary
The "hot hand" phenomenon in sports and medicine is often due to random variation, not true streaks. Small studies can lead to over-interpretation and the "decline effect" in medical research.
Area of Science:
- Medical research
- Clinical trials
- Cardiovascular medicine
Background:
- The "hot hand" phenomenon, where perceived streaks influence decisions, exists in sports and medicine.
- Random variation, not skill, often explains apparent streaks in performance.
- Over-interpretation of small studies can lead to flawed conclusions in clinical practice.
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