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Related Concept Videos

Reason and Intuition01:37

Reason and Intuition

The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the brain can only use...
Decision Making: P-value Method01:09

Decision Making: P-value Method

The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim  is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses:  a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can have a...
Decision Making01:20

Decision Making

Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
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Decision Making: Traditional Method01:14

Decision Making: Traditional Method

The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic01:25

The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the $2,000...
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A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):

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Exploring the Role of Deontic Reasoning and World Knowledge in Wason&#180;s Selection Task
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The database search problem: a question of rational decision making.

S Gittelson1, A Biedermann, S Bozza

  • 1University of Lausanne, Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Institut de Police Scientifique, le Batochime, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. simone.gittelson@unil.ch

Forensic Science International
|July 6, 2012
PubMed
Summary

This study uses probability and decision theory to define rational criteria for identifying individuals from database searches. The decision to individualize depends on the probability of the person being the source and the decision-maker

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Decision Analysis
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Database searches are crucial in forensic investigations.
  • Formalizing rationality in person identification is complex.
  • Existing literature presents opposing viewpoints on decision-making in forensic identification.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To establish formal rationality requirements for individualizing a person from database search results.
  • To analyze the parameters influencing a rational decision-maker's choice in forensic identification.
  • To model the relationship between database search outcomes and the decision to individualize.

Main Methods:

  • Application of probability theory and decision theory.
  • Utilizing influence diagrams for graphical modeling.
  • Evaluating desirability of 'individualizing' and 'not individualizing' decisions.

Main Results:

  • The decision to individualize is contingent upon the probability of the individual being the source of the evidence (state of nature).
  • Decision-maker's preferences (loss function) significantly impact the individualization decision.
  • The study clarifies the interplay between search results, propositions, and decision parameters.

Conclusions:

  • Rationality in forensic individualization is formally defined by probability and decision theory.
  • The findings provide a framework for understanding and justifying identification decisions.
  • The study addresses and offers counterarguments to opposing views in the specialized literature.