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Determining quantitative road safety targets by applying statistical prediction techniques and a multi-stage
P Wittenberg1, K Sever, S Knoth
1Helmut-Schmidt-University (University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg), Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg, Germany. pwitten@hsu-hh.de
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|July 10, 2012
Summary
This study proposes a method for setting achievable road safety targets for European Union (EU) nations. If implemented, these targets aim to reduce annual road traffic deaths to 15,465 by 2020.
Area of Science:
- Road safety research
- Transportation policy analysis
- Statistical modeling
Background:
- The European Union (EU) aims to halve road traffic fatalities within a decade.
- Existing road safety targets are often set by political commitments.
- Previous progress in road safety necessitates updated, achievable targets.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a method for setting optimal and achievable quantitative road safety targets (QRST) for EU member states.
- To establish a top-down approach for deriving national and regional road safety targets.
- To provide an alternative to politically determined targets by incorporating historical data and population trends.
Main Methods:
- A multi-stage adjustment procedure was used to determine QRST.
- Generalized linear models were fitted to road traffic fatality data from 1991-2010.
- Model selection procedures identified appropriate models for EU-wide and German Federal State-level analyses.
Main Results:
- Proposed EU targets suggest a maximum of 15,465 annual road traffic deaths by 2020.
- Mortality rates across the EU could decrease from 28-113 to 17-41 per million inhabitants by 2020.
- The method allows for the breakdown of national targets to regional levels, exemplified by German Federal States.
Conclusions:
- The developed method offers a data-driven approach to setting realistic road safety targets.
- Achieving these targets can significantly reduce road traffic fatalities and mortality rates across the EU.
- This approach complements political commitments by considering historical trends and population dynamics.
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