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Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.
Brian C O'Neill1, Brant Liddle, Leiwen Jiang
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. boneill@ucar.edu
Lancet (London, England)
|July 13, 2012
Summary
Slowing population growth can reduce carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. Demographic changes like urbanization and aging also impact CO(2) output, influencing future climate trends.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Demography
Background:
- Greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)), are closely linked to demographic shifts.
- Current emissions projections often inadequately incorporate demographic influences on CO(2) output.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review evidence on how demographic factors influence CO(2) emissions from fossil fuel use.
- To assess the impact of population dynamics on current and future climate change.
Main Methods:
- Empirical analysis of historical trends in CO(2) emissions and demographic data.
- Scenario analyses projecting future emissions based on alternative demographic pathways.
Main Results:
- Historical data show CO(2) emissions correlate almost proportionally with population size.
- Ageing and urbanization have significant, though less than proportional, effects on CO(2) emissions.
- Future population growth scenarios indicate substantial impacts on global CO(2) emissions, with regional variations.
Conclusions:
- Demographic factors, especially population size, are critical drivers of CO(2) emissions.
- Policies aimed at moderating population growth may yield significant climate benefits.
- Understanding demographic trends is essential for accurate climate change mitigation strategies.
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