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Related Experiment Videos

Predicting suicide attempts with the SAD PERSONS scale: a longitudinal analysis.

James M Bolton¹, Rae Spiwak, Jitender Sareen

¹Department of Psychiatry, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. jbolton@hsc.mb.ca

The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry

|July 17, 2012

Summary

The SAD PERSONS scale and its modified version (MSPS) show poor accuracy in predicting future suicide attempts. A revised model using five key items demonstrated improved prediction for individuals at high risk.

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Area of Science:

Psychiatry
Emergency Medicine
Public Health

Background:

The SAD PERSONS scale is frequently used for suicide risk assessment.
Existing data supporting its predictive accuracy for suicidal behavior is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate the predictive capability of the SAD PERSONS scale for suicide attempts.
To assess the Modified SAD PERSONS (MSPS) scale's effectiveness in predicting suicide attempts.

Main Methods:

A cohort of 4,019 psychiatric referrals to emergency departments in Manitoba, Canada, was studied over two years.
SAD PERSONS and MSPS scores were recorded, and suicide attempts (current and future) were tracked.
Logistic regression, sensitivity/specificity, and ROC curves were used for analysis.

Main Results:

The SAD PERSONS and MSPS scales demonstrated poor predictive ability for future suicide attempts.
High-risk scores on both scales had low sensitivity and low positive predictive value.
A stepwise regression model identified five items with improved predictive power for future suicide attempts, showing high sensitivity and a significantly increased likelihood of attempts.

Conclusions:

The current SAD PERSONS and MSPS scales are not accurate predictors of future suicide attempts.
A refined model incorporating specific scale items shows potential for better risk stratification.