Methodology for definition of yellow fever priority areas, based on environmental variables and multiple...

Yellow fever (YF) is endemic in much of Brazil, where cases of the disease are reported every year. Since 2008, outbreaks of the disease have occurred in regions of the country where no reports had been registered for decades, which has obligated public health authorities to redefine risk areas for the disease. The aim of the present study was to propose a methodology of environmental risk analysis for defining priority municipalities for YF vaccination, using as example, the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The municipalities were divided into two groups (affected and unaffected by YF) and compared based on environmental parameters related to the disease's eco-epidemiology. Bivariate analysis was used to identify statistically significant associations between the variables and virus circulation. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to evaluate the relationship among the variables and their contribution to the dynamics of YF in Sao Paulo. The MCA generated a factor that was able to differentiate between affected and unaffected municipalities and was used to determine risk levels. This methodology can be replicated in other regions, standardized, and adapted to each context.