[Suitable distribution area of Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann) in China and related affecting factors]

Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann) is an important quarantine insect of apple tree, and usually causes serious economic losses in apple production area every year. To predict the suitable distribution area of E. lanigerum and the environmental factors affecting the insect' s colonization and dispersal could provide references for the forecast of the insect's distribution area, the constitution of effective quarantine measures, and the control decisions. In this study, niche model MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of E. lanigerum, ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and Jackknife analysis was made to analyze the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of E. lanigerum. The results showed that E. lanigerum had a wide distribution area in China, its suitable distribution index was the highest in Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi provinces, and the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of E. lanigerum were temperature-dependent factors.