Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Complex Systems Science
• Environmental Management

Background:

• Complex systems can undergo critical transitions between alternative stable states.
• Identifying early-warning signals for ecosystem regime shifts remains challenging.
• Previous methods for detecting ecosystem shifts have shown limited utility.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the effectiveness of multiple early-warning indicators for detecting ecosystem regime shifts.
• To evaluate the utility of different methods in real-world monitoring data from the Central Baltic Sea.
• To propose an improved approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts.

Main Methods:

• Application of multiple early-warning indicators to real monitoring data.
• Analysis of a key ecosystem component in the Central Baltic Sea.
• Comparison of the performance of various early-warning methods.

Main Results:

• Some early-warning indicators and methods successfully identified significant signals of an impending regime shift.
• Other methods demonstrated limited or no potential for early detection.
• Variability in the effectiveness of different early-warning approaches was observed.

Conclusions:

• A multiple method approach is recommended for robust early detection of ecosystem regime shifts.
• Effective early detection can inform timely management actions for ecosystem change.
• The proposed approach enhances the utility of monitoring data for ecosystem-based management.