Bhopal atmospheric dispersion revisited

There is a vital need to understand details of the methylisocyanate (MIC) release that occurred at the 1984 Union Carbide Ltd. pesticide plant in Bhopal, India in order to avoid or respond to such releases in the future. However, we believe there are serious deficiencies in currently available dispersion predictions of the impact of toxic materials on humans and animals downwind of the plant. Specifically, cloud densities have been underestimated due to failure to account for the presence of a liquid/solid aerosol that would have been produced by the chemical reactions that caused the problem. Using data reported in Union Carbide's own investigation of the accident, which included chemical reaction data, we estimated aerosol compositions and cloud densities, then modeled the Bhopal release, simulating potential exposure levels at various locations under a number of wind-condition scenarios. For the worst-case (low wind speed and high aerosol densities), our predicted MIC concentrations at ground level are at least one order of magnitude greater than any previously published estimates. The centerline elevation of the jetting plume released at 33 m elevation is predicted to rise to about 41 m before falling, resulting in a 40 ppm (Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health, IDLH) concentration contour that reaches the ground at about 410 m downwind of the release location. This is consistent with observations that the plant environs were not hard-hit while the public immediately downwind of the plant perimeter was severely exposed. Concentrations on the order of 1000 ppm are predicted at some ground-level locations, which are more consistent than previous estimates with the reported large numbers of deaths and injuries of humans and animals.