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Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles.

Chris J Harvey, Pamela E Moriarty, Eric P Salathé

    Ecology and Evolution
    |July 24, 2012
    PubMed
    Summary

    Climate change will reduce chum salmon carcass availability for overwintering bald eagles in Puget Sound. Despite warmer winters, bald eagle food needs remain stable, but less food will be available due to faster decomposition.

    Keywords:
    Bald eaglesbioenergetics modelsclimate changeecosystemsfood webspredationregional climate modelssalmonscavenging

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    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Climate Change Biology
    • Wildlife Management

    Background:

    • Bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations are recovering, increasing pressure on food resources.
    • Puget Sound is a critical overwintering area for bald eagles, with chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses as a primary food source.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To examine the impact of anticipated climate change on the energetic demands and food availability for overwintering bald eagles in Puget Sound.
    • To model future changes in bald eagle food requirements and chum salmon carcass availability under different climate scenarios.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized regional downscaling of two global climate models to obtain localized climate data (temperature, precipitation, wind, radiation) for the 1970s and 2050s.
    • Drove bald eagle bioenergetics models using climate data from December to February for three Puget Sound tributaries.
    • Assessed changes in chum salmon carcass decomposition rates and availability due to projected climate shifts.

    Main Results:

    • Bald eagle bioenergetics were largely insensitive to projected climate change, with only a slight (<1%) decline in food requirements.
    • Warming climate is projected to increase the decomposition rate of salmon carcasses, reducing available biomass by 11% to 14% in the 2050s.
    • Increased winter streamflow may further decrease carcass availability, an effect not fully quantified in the current model.

    Conclusions:

    • Future climate change is expected to decrease winter food availability for bald eagles in Puget Sound.
    • Declining food resources, combined with a growing bald eagle population, may compel eagles to seek alternative prey or habitats.
    • Conservation and management strategies should consider the impact of climate change on food web dynamics and bald eagle winter survival.