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Updated: May 20, 2026

A Syngeneic Mouse Model of Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma for Quantitative and Longitudinal Assessment of Preclinical Therapies
Published on: April 12, 2017
Dynamic tumor modeling of the dose-response relationship for everolimus in metastatic renal cell carcinoma using data
Andrew Stein1, Wenping Wang, Alison A Carter
1Modeling & Simulation, Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research, 45 Sidney St, Cambridge, MA, USA. andrew.stein@novartis.com
Background:
The phase 3 RECORD-1 trial (NCT00410124) established the efficacy and safety of everolimus in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) who progress on sunitinib or sorafenib. In RECORD-1, patients received 10 mg everolimus daily, with dose reduction to 5 mg daily allowed for toxicity. We have developed a model of tumor growth dynamics utilizing serial measurements of the sum of the longest tumor diameters (SLD) from individual RECORD-1 patients to define the dose-response relationship of everolimus.
Results:
The model predicts that after 1 year of continuous dosing, the change in SLD of target lesions will be +142.1% ± 98.3%, +22.4% ± 17.2%, and -15.7% ± 11.5% in the average patient treated with placebo, 5 mg everolimus, and 10 mg everolimus, respectively. This nonlinear, mixed-effects modeling approach can be used to describe the dynamics of each individual patient, as well as the overall population. This allows evaluation of how an actual dosing history and individual covariates impact on the observed drug effect, and offers the possibility of predicting clinical observations as a function of time.
Conclusions:
In this pharmacodynamic model of tumor response, everolimus more effectively shrinks target lesions in mRCC when dosed 10 mg daily versus 5 mg daily, although a 5-mg dose still shows an antitumor effect. These data support earlier studies that established 10 mg daily as the preferred clinical dose of everolimus, and improve our understanding of the everolimus dose-response relationship.
Insights
Everolimus at 10mg daily showed superior tumor shrinkage in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients compared to 5mg daily. This study models everolimus dose-response for mRCC treatment.
Area of Science:
- Pharmacodynamics
- Oncology
- Clinical Trial Analysis
Background:
- The RECORD-1 trial evaluated everolimus for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) post-sunitinib or sorafenib progression.
- Patients received 10mg daily everolimus, with a 5mg daily option for toxicity management.
- A tumor growth dynamics model was developed using sum of longest diameters (SLD) from RECORD-1 data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To define the dose-response relationship of everolimus in mRCC patients.
- To model tumor growth dynamics and predict treatment outcomes based on everolimus dosage.
Main Methods:
- Utilized serial measurements of sum of longest tumor diameters (SLD) from individual patients in the RECORD-1 trial.
- Developed a nonlinear, mixed-effects modeling approach to analyze tumor growth dynamics.
- Modeled individual patient responses and overall population dynamics to assess dose-response relationships.
Main Results:
- The model predicts a 1-year change in SLD of -15.7% with 10mg everolimus, +22.4% with 5mg everolimus, and +142.1% with placebo.
- Demonstrated that the modeling approach can describe individual patient dynamics and overall population response.
- Showcased the ability to evaluate the impact of dosing history and covariates on drug effect and predict clinical outcomes over time.
Conclusions:
- Everolimus at 10mg daily demonstrated greater efficacy in shrinking target lesions in mRCC compared to 5mg daily.
- A 5mg daily dose of everolimus still exhibited an antitumor effect in mRCC patients.
- These findings support the established 10mg daily dose as preferred and enhance understanding of everolimus pharmacodynamics in mRCC.
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