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A Psychophysics Paradigm for the Collection and Analysis of Similarity Judgments
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Comparability effects in probability judgments.

Timothy J Pleskac1

  • 1Department of Psychology, Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA. tim.pleskac@gmail.com

Psychological Science
|July 25, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Psychological theories of probability judgments rely on an independence assumption that was systematically violated in a study on race likelihood. Hypothesis similarity influences how people weigh evidence, challenging existing support theory.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Subjective probability judgments are theorized to be mediated by accumulated evidence (support).
  • Psychological theories, like support theory, often assume independence between evidence for a hypothesis and its alternative.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test the independence assumption of support theory in subjective probability judgments.
  • To investigate how hypothesis similarity influences probability judgments.

Main Methods:

  • Participants judged the likelihood of a bicyclist winning a simulated race.
  • The study systematically varied the hypotheses to assess judgment patterns.

Main Results:

  • The independence assumption was systematically violated in participants' judgments.
  • Hypothesis similarity increased the weight given to differences on other dimensions.

Conclusions:

  • Findings challenge the simple scalability-processing assumption of support theory.
  • A new theory is needed to explain how hypothesis similarity shapes judgment processes.