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Published on: September 19, 2018
No increased mortality with early aortic aneurysm disease
Matthew Mell1, Julie J White, Bradley B Hill
1Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif, USA. mwmell@stanford.edu
Insights
Contemporary mortality for patients with early abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is lower than previously thought. Larger aneurysm size and diabetes are key risk factors for death in early AAA disease.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Medicine
- Vascular Surgery
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Previous studies indicated excessive all-cause mortality in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients, comparable to coronary heart disease.
- These earlier findings predated modern risk factor management for coronary heart disease.
- Contemporary mortality rates for early AAA disease (3-5 cm diameter) have not been recently evaluated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the current mortality risk in patients diagnosed with early-stage abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).
- To identify predictors of mortality in contemporary AAA patient cohorts.
Main Methods:
- 634 patients with AAA were recruited from three Northern California healthcare systems (2006-2011).
- Data collected included aneurysm diameter, demographics, comorbidities, and medication history.
- Survival status was tracked, and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to analyze mortality predictors.
Main Results:
- The study included 634 AAA patients with a mean age of 76.4 years and aortic diameter of 3.86 cm.
- Estimated 1- and 3-year survival rates were 98.2% and 90.9%, respectively.
- Increased mortality risk was associated with larger aneurysm size (>4.0 cm) and diabetes. Healthcare system also independently predicted mortality.
Conclusions:
- Current all-cause mortality for individuals with early abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is lower than previously reported.
- Further investigation is needed to understand the factors contributing to improved survival rates in early AAA.
Objective:
In addition to increased risks for aneurysm-related death, previous studies have determined that all-cause mortality in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients is excessive and equivalent to that associated with coronary heart disease. These studies largely preceded the current era of coronary heart disease risk factor management, however, and no recent study has examined contemporary mortality associated with early AAA disease (aneurysm diameter between 3 and 5 cm). As part of an ongoing natural history study of AAA, we report the mortality risk associated with presence of early disease.
Methods:
Participants were recruited from three distinct health care systems in Northern California between 2006 and 2011. Aneurysm diameter, demographic information, comorbidities, medication history, and plasma for biomarker analysis were collected at study entry. Survival status was determined at follow-up. Data were analyzed with t-tests or χ(2) tests where appropriate. Freedom from death was calculated via Cox proportional hazards modeling; the relevance of individual predictors on mortality was determined by log-rank test.
Results:
The study enrolled 634 AAA patients; age 76.4 ± 8.0 years, aortic diameter 3.86 ± 0.7 cm. Participants were mostly male (88.8%), not current smokers (81.6%), and taking statins (76.7%). Mean follow-up was 2.1 ± 1.0 years. Estimated 1- and 3-year survival was 98.2% and 90.9%, respectively. Factors independently associated with mortality included larger aneurysm size (hazard ratio, 2.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-3.57 for diameter >4.0 cm) and diabetes (hazard ratio, 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-4.47). After adjusting for patient-level factors, health care system independently predicted mortality.
Conclusions:
Contemporary all-cause mortality for patients with early AAA disease is lower than that previously reported. Further research is warranted to determine important factors that contribute to improved survival in early AAA disease.
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