Use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth and spatial clustering to predict ambient PM2.5 concentrations

Satellite-based PM(2.5) monitoring has the potential to complement ground PM(2.5) monitoring networks, especially for regions with sparsely distributed monitors. Satellite remote sensing provides data on aerosol optical depth (AOD), which reflects particle abundance in the atmospheric column. Thus AOD has been used in statistical models to predict ground-level PM(2.5) concentrations. However, previous studies have shown that AOD may not be a strong predictor of PM(2.5) ground levels. Another shortcoming of remote sensing is the large number of non-retrieval days (i.e., days without satellite data available) due to clouds and snow- and ice-cover. In this paper we propose statistical approaches to overcome these two shortcomings, thereby making satellite imagery a viable method to estimate PM(2.5) concentrations. First, we render AOD a robust predictor of PM(2.5) mass concentration by introducing an AOD daily calibration approach through the use of mixed effects model. Second, we develop models that combine AOD and ground monitoring data to predict PM(2.5) concentrations during non-retrieval days. A key feature of this approach is that we develop these prediction models separately for groups of days defined by the observed amount of spatial heterogeneity in concentrations across the study region. Subsequently, these methodologies were applied to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of daily PM(2.5) concentrations for both retrieval days (i.e., days with satellite data available) and non-retrieval days in the New England region of the United States during the period 2000-2008. Overall, for the years 2000-2008, our statistical models predicted surface PM(2.5) concentrations with reasonably high R(2) (0.83) and low percent mean relative error (3.5%). Also the spatial distribution of the estimated PM(2.5) levels in the study domain clearly exhibited densely populated and high traffic areas. The method we have developed demonstrates that remote sensing can have a tremendous impact on the fields of environmental monitoring and human exposure assessment.