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Modelling tundra vegetation response to recent arctic warming.
Paul A Miller1, Benjamin Smith
1Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. paul.miller@nateko.lu.se
Ambio
|August 7, 2012
Summary
Arctic warming is increasing tundra vegetation growth and shrub/tree cover. This shift reduces surface albedo, amplifying climate warming through a positive feedback loop.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Arctic land has warmed by over 1°C in 30 years.
- Tundra vegetation shows increased productivity and stature.
- Reduced albedo indicates a positive feedback to climate warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model dynamic vegetation changes in the Arctic from 1980-2006.
- To assess the impact of observed climate and CO2 on Arctic ecosystems.
- To quantify the feedback mechanisms between vegetation and climate.
Main Methods:
- An individual-based dynamic vegetation model was utilized.
- The model was forced with observed climate and atmospheric CO2 data.
- Simulations covered the Arctic region for the period 1980-2006.
Main Results:
- Simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index.
- Modeled vegetation shows a greater representation of shrubs and trees.
- Warming-driven longer growing seasons enhanced shrub and tree production.
Conclusions:
- Arctic vegetation changes significantly impact regional albedo.
- Simulated vegetation shifts correspond to a 1.75% decline in snow-season albedo.
- Findings highlight the importance of biogeophysical feedbacks in Arctic system models.
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